~Amid heightened geopolitical instability~
WILLEMSTAD/PHILIPSBURG:--- The September 2025 Economic Bulletin of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS) reports that the economic outlook for 2025 points to continued growth in both Curaçao and Sint Maarten. According to the CBCS’s latest estimates, both economies entered 2025 on a positive trajectory, underpinned primarily by tourism, as stay-over and cruise arrivals boosted activity in hospitality, trade, and transport. As a result, the growth path and fiscal stance are expected to follow a similar pattern across the monetary union in 2025 and 2026, though at a more moderate pace as the strong post-pandemic rebound eases. However, the outlook remains fragile as the global environment deteriorates and uncertainties increase, with Curaçao and Sint Maarten facing significant risks, although the dynamics have shifted slightly in light of recent geopolitical developments.
Growth is underpinned by tourism alongside fiscal stability.
Curaçao’s economy is projected to moderate over the coming years, with real GDP growth slowing from 5.0% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. The 2025 forecast represents an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to the CBCS’s forecast of June 2025. Growth will be driven primarily by stronger net foreign demand, with higher tourism earnings boosting exports and declining oil prices causing a lower oil import bill. At the same time, private demand is expected to ease as major projects wind down and purchasing power declines. In contrast, public demand will provide some support, but less than anticipated, due to slower implementation of government investments. On the fiscal front, Curaçao is projected to maintain a current budget surplus of 2.2% of GDP through 2026, while its debt-to-GDP ratio continues to decline, reaching 62.1% by 2026, despite an increase in borrowing to finance capital investments. Economic growth in Sint Maarten is also expected to ease, slowing from 3.0% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. The 2025 outlook nevertheless marks an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous forecast of June. This growth will be supported by robust cruise and stay-over arrivals, new private investments in housing and commercial projects, as well as government spending on infrastructure. Sint Maarten’s fiscal stance is set to improve, with the current budget balance shifting from a balanced outcome in 2024 to a surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. Debt dynamics are expected to temporarily rise to 42.4% of GDP in 2025, before easing to 41.8% in 2026, as nominal GDP growth offsets higher borrowing needs. Inflation dynamics, however, diverge between the two economies. Inflation in Curaçao is set to remain steady at 2.6% in 2025, the same as in 2024, before easing to 2.1% in 2026. By contrast, inflation in Sint Maarten is expected to decline more sharply, falling from 3.6% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, and remaining at that level in 2026. For both countries, these projections are largely shaped by international oil price developments and the inflation forecasts of the monetary union’s main trading partners, the United States and the Netherlands.
Changing risk dynamics weigh on the economic outlook.
However, the balance of risks to the economic outlook for Curaçao and Sint Maarten remains tilted to the downside. In particular, the risks associated with recent frictions between the United States and the region have intensified. Rising tensions between Venezuela and the United States, including an increased U.S. naval presence, raise uncertainty over maritime security and may pose a risk to regional trade shipping routes, undermining the Caribbean’s attractiveness as a tourism destination. Moreover, Venezuela’s fragile economy under tightened U.S. sanctions heightens the risk of renewed migration flows to Curaçao, potentially straining public services and fiscal resources. Other global risks that could affect growth and lead to higher import costs include heightened geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, and the escalating instability in the Middle East, along with fragile global trade disrupted by U.S tariff measures, and uncertainty over new trade agreements. Adding to these risks, uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, particularly potential delays in expected Fed rate cuts, could keep global financial conditions tight, and constrain domestic credit growth, investment, and private consumption in the monetary union. The complete text of the September 2025 Economic Bulletin is available on the CBCS website at https://www.centralbank.cw/publications/economic-bulletins/2025.
Willemstad September 30, 2025
CENTRALE BANK VAN CURACAO EN SINT MAARTEN
